Earlier this week, I promised you guys a year end edition of Foreclosure Watch, but when I sat down to work on it tonight, I kind of got distracted.

See, I started out looking up 2008 residential foreclosure sales month by month. A good start, right?  But then I got curious about whether those foreclosure sales followed the same seasonal highs and lows that non-foreclosure, or normal,  residential sales usually do, so I looked up the normal 2008 residential sales by month. And then I started wondering about how this year’s foreclosure sales compared to last year’s foreclosure sales, so I went back to the MLS and hunted those down. And finally,  I thought that if I was going to add the 2007 foreclosure sales, I might as well add the normal 2007 sales,  so I looked those up too.

After all of that hunting and gathering, it only seemed right to put all of my new-found information in a spreadsheet and graph it,  which led me to this -

The first thing I noticed is that 2008’s non-foreclosure, or normal, sales (the red line) are well below 2007’s normal sales (the blue line). Interesting — and definitely depressing– but not wholly unexpected.

But then I noticed two very interesting things -

1. Although normal residential sales have a pretty distinct seasonal pattern, the foreclosure sales stay more or less contant throughout the year and therefore appear to be unaffected by “high” and “low” selling seasons.

2. While  normal residential sales  were way down in ‘08 from ‘07, the 2008 foreclosure sales were consistently up (the green line) throughout the year versus 2007 (the yellow line).

Huh.

So then I asked myself a whole slew of questions, none of which I can really answer -

1. Why were the foreclosure sales so steady from month to month? Is it because these properties are being bought by investors who don’t care about summer vacation or school starting times?
2. Were there more foreclosure sales this year because there were more foreclosures in general or because there were more investors hoping to cash in on a down market?
3. If overall sales were down, why didn’t foreclosure sales follow the trend? Is it because people see foreclosure properties as “good deals”? Again, was it because of buyers hoping to buy low in a down market?

One part of my brain says that there were just more foreclosure listings, so therefore foreclosure sales were up. Duh.

Another part of my brain shouts at that first part of my brain that there were a lot more non-foreclosure listings too, but that didn’t make normal residential sales go up. Face.

Yet another part of my brain quietly reminds those other two parts that foreclosures probably simply don’t follow normal sales patterns because they are more attractive to all buyers, investors and non-investors alike. Hmmm.

The last part of my brain just wants to watch “Lost” and forget the whole thing. Aaahhh.

So now, if anyone has any thoughts or speculations on this curious little graph, or answers to any of my numerous questions I’d love to hear them. That’s what comments are for. And yes, my liberal arts educated mind sometimes misses obvious answers and conclusions.

Also, if  you would like a copy of the spreadsheet that this graph came from, give me a shout and I’d be more than happy to send it your way.

Note: I pulled all of this data from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtor’s MLS, therefore it is limited to properties that were listed in the MLS and does not include homes sold by owner. It also excludes condos and PUDS.

It’s the middle of December, which means the Knoxville Area Association of Realtor’s numbers are finally out for Knoxville’s November home sales. And trust me, I wish I had some Christmas cheer to spread, but I keep  reaching into this Home Sales Report stocking and all I’m pulling out is coal.

In case you’ve already forgotten all about November 2008, let me refresh your memory: Barack Obama won the presidential election; Germany & Japan officially went into recession; the US announced another rescue package, this time for Citigroup; and the Federal Reserve announced it would inject another $800 billion into the US economy to try to stabilize our flailing financial system. It was basically more fun than a barell full of monkeys. Very over-leveraged, cash poor, soon to be foreclosed on monkeys.

So, how did the Knoxville real estate market fare through all of that doom and gloom? Well, not too great. So, sit back, relax, and let me break it to you gently - All Around KTown style.

You know I like to start with the good news first -

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is up.
Nov ‘07 - $80,500
Nov ‘08 - $87,000

2008 is almost over.

Now for the not-so-good news:

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (way) down.
Nov ‘07 - $99,200
Nov ‘08 - $85,900

It’s time for the numbery goodness that is the monthly Home Sales Report - the monthly sales stats that come from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors. It’s fun stuff.

September was an ugly month for the financial market. I know you’ve been busy trying to keep up with all the global economic insanity that October has brought us, but it was just over a month ago that Fannie and Freddie were taken over by the governmet, Lehman Brothers collapsed, AIG was bailed out by the government, and Washington Mutual was seized by the FDIC. Those were the days, huh?

So how did all of that financial turmoil affect the housing market right here in good old Knoxville? There’s only one way I know to find out and that’s to breakdown the September Home Sales Report All Around K-Town style. Aw, yeah.

You know i like to start with the good news first. Except there isn’t any. Well, not about the home sale numbers, anyway. That’s right, NONE of the sales numbers went up. Go ahead, digest it and suck it up, because it’s time to move on to the not so good news. Ready? OK, here goes:

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.
Sept ‘07 - $107,400
Sept ‘08 - $88,600

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.
Sept ‘07 - $80,000
Sept ‘08 - $78,000

Those of you who stop by on a regular basis know that once a month, my office gets together to drink bad coffee & dissect the previous month’s sales and listing numbers. And if you’ve been coming here for a while, you also know that if there’s any juicy or thought provoking information in those meetings, it winds up here, in the Sales Meeting Update.

This month’s meeting had some interesting charts that I thought were worth sharing, and my broker was kind enough to pass them on - even though she knows they’re doomed to end up here

This first one is a year over year comparison of new listings taken, pending sales, and closed sales, for just my office (CBWW West Town).

CBWW West Town Year Over Year Comparison

Yeah, it’s kind of ironic that they put the ‘08 numbers in black.  For those of you keeping score at home, that’s 40% fewer closings last month than a year ago last month. Aye carumba.

Now, keep in mind, these numbers are just for my office, and not for all of Knoxville, or even for all of Wallace & Wallace, but I can’t help but think that other companies are seeing similar trends. I’m sure the September Home Sales Report will shed more light on that when it comes out in a week or so.

Speaking of Home Sales Reports, there was also a chart from the August Home Sales Report data that I thought was interesting. It shows August closings for the entire Knoxville Area Association of Realtors going back 6 years-

What’s interesting to me about this slide is that although units sold are down considerably from ‘07,  average market time, although slightly elevated, has remained pretty steady.

And while ‘08 seems pretty rough in comparison to ‘05 & ‘06, it doesn’t look nearly as bad when you compare it to the pre-boom years of ‘03 and ‘04. Hey, I’m just trying to find something to be positive about over here, OK?

Well, that’s it for this month’s Sales Meeting Update. Comments and questions about these charts are, of course, welcome.

And as always, please keep in mind that I share this information with you in order to shed some light on the market, not to scare the bejeebus out of you. People really are still buying & selling homes out there and the last time I checked, there was even still money left for home mortgages. I hope.

It’s the middle of the month again and that means it’s Home Sales Report time. For those of you new to this shindig, every month I look at the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors Sales Report statistics and tell you what sold and for how much as compared to the same month the previous year.

So here’s the July Home Sales Report breakdown the only way I know how to do it — All Around K-Town style.

Let’s look at the good news first:

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (way) up.
July ‘07 - $111,500
July ‘08 - $146,100

Average sales price for 4+ BR homes is up.
July ‘07 - $298,100
July ‘08 - $307,700

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is (slightly) up.
July ‘07 - $261,700
July ‘08 - $262,500

I write here all the time about the monthly Knoxville home sale numbers and the general state of the Knoxville real estate market. However, there’s nothing like seeing a few good old fashioned line charts to put the current market into perspective.

These charts were part of my office’s most recent monthly sales meeting and my broker was good enough to pass them along to me to post here. The first one is from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and shows national single family housing inventory from 1992 to the present -

You see overall national inventory really start to break away from the norm at the very end of 2005 (the purply line, sort of fourth from the top), jump way up in 2006 (green line), continue to go even higher in 2007 (red line) and stay on up there so far this year. Notice, however, that May’s inventory dipped slightly back down. May was the best sales month nationally, and also here in Knoxville, so far this year.

So, that gives you a very clear indicator of what’s happening nationally, but what about what’s going in Knoxville?

Never fear, I have graphs for that too. These charts were put together by my office with information pulled straight from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors.

This first one shows active listings from 2005 to now by month -

Since this only goes back to ‘05, it’s hard to say if that as our “break out” year in terms of rising inventory, but you can definitely see that we more or less have followed along with the rest of the country in terms of inventory growth.

This represents closed units, residential and condo, from 2005 to the present by month. The line to watch here is that little aqua line way down underneath the others. That’s 2008. Ouch.

Here’s what we’re looking like in terms of supply -

Again, that shorter aqua line is 2008. You can see that we are way higher than last year in terms of months worth of supply, although we have come down a little bit from about 19 months worth of homes on the market in January to just under 15 months worth currently.

Please keep in mind that I share this information with you to educate you, not to scare you. Be assured that homes are still selling in Knoxville - the new tires I just had to put on my car and the 13 hour days I’ve been putting in can attest to that. There is simply a lot - a whole lot - of competition out there.  If you have to sell this Fall, here’s what I recommend:

1. Find yourself a really good agent.
2. Spit shine your house til it squeaks.
3. Remember that price conquers all.
4. Find a good hobby, because even if you and your agent do absolutely everything “right,” you still might have to wait a while before closing.