photo credit: Silly Little Man

The weekly poll is kind of concerned about last week’s housing news. Go vote and try to calm it down.

This week’s poll topic has to do with all the (not so great) news that came out last week about  national and local home sales in July. Unless you live under a rock, you probably know by now that national and local homes sales were down by almost 30% last month following the ending the home buyer tax credits, which has some people kind of worried about the current state of the Knoxville real estate market (I talked a little bit about this on WBIR this week as well).

However, not all the local news was bad, as prices for 4+ BR homes were up and average days on market was down. Not to mention the fact that we are still enjoying some super awesomely low mortgage interest rates right now.  I’m out there in the housing trenches every day and although it’s happening a lot more slowly than I’d like, I’m still seeing houses showing and selling, which gives me a lot of hope.

Still, a drop that big is bound to make people nervous, so I’m curious: how nervous is it making you? Nervous enough to postpone buying or selling a home? Or maybe you’re just not the worrying kind? Cast your vote and let me know!

Don’t worry — getting the latest news on the Knoxville real estate market is free and easy! Just subscribe to All Around KTown by RSS or email today!

photo credit: Tracy O

It’s gettin’ on toward the end of the month and you know what that means — it’s Home Sales Report time. And the Knoxville area July numbers are here, even if I’m not that crazy about them.

Thanks to the Home Buyer Tax Credits that were in effect late last year and early this year, we had a really nice boost in sales in April, May and June. So nice, in fact, that most of us probably temporarily forgot that we’re still in the middle of an economic downturn and fairly major correction in the real estate market.

Now that all of those tax credits are behind us, the July Home Sales Report numbers are here to bring reality crashing back down. No, it’s not all bad news (what up, 4+ BR homes!), but, as you’ll see, year over year sales are down, well, a lot, and that’s going to freak some of you out. And the last thing I want is for you to be freaked out.

As I’ve said before during some of our darker times (you do remember September 2008, don’t you?), homes are still selling, and people will always need/want to move to Knoxville. Trust me on that one.  We pushed through this back in 2008 thanks to the first and then second wave of tax credits, but this time it looks like we’re going to have to ride it out the old fashioned way: by letting the market slowly but surely correct itself.

And the good news is that that’s already happening and has been for quite some time.  Price corrections have been going on for the better part of the past four (yes 4) years and judging by increased home sales prices in some categories, it would seem that we’re not in the same pricing decline we’ve been in over the last two or so years. Heck,  just today the Wall Street Journal even said Knoxville is a great place to invest in real estate, as  ”there is a low probability that home prices will fall further.”  Oh, and we still have some pretty kickin’ super low interest rates that are helping out a whole lot (ask any loan officer you know, if you can actually get them on the phone right now).

So hang tight. This too shall pass. And for all I know, it could pass by next month. You’ll just have to tune back in to see

But enough with the pep talk. Let’s get down to the business at hand and start breaking down the June 2010 Knoxville Home Sales numbers the only way I know how: AAKT style. Enjoy!

And hey, look! There’s some good news!_

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (slightly) up.
Jul ‘09 – $88,100
Jul ‘10 – $89,000

Average sales price for 4+ BR homes is (way) up.
Jul ‘09 – $267,000
Jul ‘10 – $277,300

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is  up.
Jul ‘09 – $239,000
Jul ‘10 – $242,300

Days on market is down (yes, seriously).
Jul ‘09 – 118
Jul ‘10 – 108

And then there’s some of that not-so-good news -

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (way) down.
Jul ‘09 – $82,000
Jul ‘10 – $74,500

Average sales price for 3 BR homes is (way) down.
Jul ‘09 – $162,400
Jul ‘10 – $152,800

Median sales price for 3 BR homes is (ever so slightly) down.
Jul ‘09 – $137,300
Jul ‘10 – $137,000

Average condo sales price is (way) down.
Jul ‘09 – $163,700
Jul ‘10 – $153,000

Median condo sales price is (way) down.
Jul ‘09 – $144,500
Jul ‘10 – $133,400

OK, so I’m really, really behind in getting these April Home Sales Report numbers from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors to you this month. Sometimes the day job kinda gets in the way.

April 30, 2010, as you may remember (yeah, I know it was a long time ago), was the deadline for buyers to be under contract in order to take advantage of the First Time and Move-Up Buyer Tax Credits. And yes, as you’ll shortly see, sales were definitely up as a result of this. But also keep in mind, that there’s another deadline involved with those tax credits: June 30, 2010. That’s the date by which all of those houses that were put under contract will have to close. So, while sales numbers may not be quite as high in May and June as they were for this month, my guess is there still going to be fairly elevated.

But I’m getting a little bit ahead of myself. Before we can speculate on what will happen later in the summer, we need to take a look at what just happened in the spring. So join me as I break down the March Home Sales numbers the only way I know how: AAKT style. Enjoy!

You know I like to start with the good news, and thankfully there is some -

Total number of condo units sold is (way) up.
Apr ‘09 – 78
Apr ‘10 – 111

Average sales price for 4+ BR homes is (way) up.
Apr ‘09 – $296,000
Apr ‘10 – $319,000

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is (ever so slightly) up.
Apr ‘09 – $249,000
Apr ‘10 – $249,900

But there’s also some of that nasty not-so-good news -

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (way) down.
Apr ‘09 – $123,800
Apr ‘10 – $91,700

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (slightly) down.
Apr ‘09 – $74,700
Apr ‘10 – $73,500

Whoa! Is it already Home Sales Report time again? I guess time flies when you’re having fun — and when you’re working 60-80 hour weeks trying to beat the clock on the looming April 30th home buyer tax credit expirations. And I don’t think I’m the only one who’s out there working hard: judging by the March 2010 home sales numbers from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors, a whole lot of agents busted some serious booty last month.

Just how much booty you ask? Well, why don’t you stick around and find out as I break down the March Home Sales numbers the only way I know how: AAKT style. Enjoy!

You know I like to start with the good news and there’s plenty of it this month -

Total number of condo units sold is (way) up.
Mar ‘09 – 66
Mar ‘10 – 91

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is up.
Mar ‘09 – $92,100
Mar ‘10 – $94,100

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (slightly) up.
Mar ‘09 – $69,000
Mar ‘10 – $70,000

Average sales price for 4+ BR homes is (way) up.
Mar ‘09 – $265,900
Mar ‘10 – $286,500

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is up.
Mar ‘09 – $220,000
Mar ‘10 – $230,000

Median condo sales price is (slightly) up.
Mar ‘09 – $138,000
Mar ‘10 – $139,000-

And then there’s that durn not-so-good news -___

It’s everybody’s favorite time of the month again — Knoxville Home Sales Report time! You know, the time when we take a moment to sit back and reflect on home sales in the month that was. Good times.

And while I usually like to wax nostalgic about what happened in that previous month, this time I’d like to talk a little about a few issues that may have an impact on home sales in the months to come:

1. FHA Changes It’s no secret that FHA loans have been a huge boon to the market over the past two years. Well, now we have some changes coming down the FHA pike in the next few months, including higher minimum down payments & fewer seller concessions that are bound to knock some buyers out of the market and have an impact on the spring sales numbers.
2. Tax Credit Expiration It’s also pretty common knowledge that the home buyer tax credits have helped home sales as well. While we probably won’t see a real impact from the expiration of these tax credits in terms of closed sales until the closing deadline hits on June 30, the “under contract” deadline of April 30th is fast approaching and many say it is unlikely to be extended.
3. “Shadow” Foreclosure Inventory We’ve heard about this “shadow” inventory for a while, but now there are estimates that between 5 & 7 million homeowners are “eligible” for foreclosure but have not yet had their homes taken back by the bank. The worry here is that as these homes slowly do come on the market, they will undercut housing prices just as the market is starting to stabilize. Me no likey.
4. Possibility of rising mortgage rates The government is set to stop buying mortgage backed securities from Freddie and Fannie Mae on March 31st. This is what has largely helped keep interest rates at historic lows for the past several months. While this more than likely won’t lead to the rise in rates that some had first predicted, odds of rates rising some from current record lows are pretty good.

So, I hear you saying, “Thanks, Suzy, for being a total bummer. Geesh!” and I totally understand that. But I’m not trying to be a bummer. Really. I’m just trying to inform and educate you about what’s going on in real estate both locally and nationally, whether it’s good, bad or downright ugly.  I also think it’s important to know what’s coming so that we can all prepare for it. If you’re a potential buyer who’s planning on going FHA, that might mean going ahead and getting off the fence before the changes take effect and you no longer qualify or have a harder time coming up with funds to close. If you’re a current homeowner, that might mean going ahead with that refinance now while rates are still super low. If you’re a seller, that might mean making those improvements or lowering that price now while the tax credits/FHA/low rates stars are still aligned.  And if you’re just a real estate enthusiast/concerned citizen, well, you should probably just brace yourself. Just in case.

Having said all that, I still think that the combination of the tax credits, low rates interest rates, and availability of FHA loans will keep pending sales relatively strong though this month and probably into April as well and closings should stay strong through June. See, that’s not such a bummer, right?

So, now that we have a little bit of an idea of the shape of things to come,  how about the shape of things that have already come and gone? Without further ado, allow me to present you with the February Home Sales numbers, broken down, as usual, AAKT style. Enjoy!

Starting off with good news in the home sales department -

Total number of condo units sold is (slightly) up.
Feb ‘09 – 52
Feb ‘10 – 58

And then there’s that not-so-good sales prices news -

I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that 2010 has started out with quite a bang —  I honestly can’t say that I’ve ever been this busy in the first quarter. And I love being busy, trust me. The (not so) bad news is that I’m a little late in getting you the January 2010 Home Sales Report numbers from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors. To make up for it, I’m putting together a special chart post that will (hopefully) be coming up later this week. Stay tuned!

There’s also some good news and bad news to report on the national and local home sales. The bad news is that nationally, sales of previously owned homes were down 7.2% in January. Boo. The good news is that national sales were still up 11% this January from January ‘09. And the even better news is that 0verall Knoxville home sales were up 18% last month over January ‘09.  Can I get an amen?

While this might not signal the bottom of this roller coaster ride we’ve been on for well over two years, it’s certainly not a bad way to start off 2010.

So, what else happened in Knoxville home sales last month? Well, here’s the skinny on Knoxville area home sales in January, broken down for you , as always, AAKT style. Enjoy!

I love, love, love me some good news! Here’s a lot of it -

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is (slightly) up.
Jan ‘09 – $227,500
Jan ‘10 – $229,000

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (slightly)  up.
Jan ‘09 – $76,100
Jan ‘10 – $77,300

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (slightly) up.
Jan ‘09 – $64,000
Jan ‘10 – $66,500

Total number of condo units sold is (slightly) up.
Jan ‘09 – 39
Jan ‘10 – 46

And then there’s that not-so-good news. I gotta break that down too -

It’s once again time to step back into the Way Back Machine to take a gander at what the Knoxville real estate market was up to in the month that was. This month we’re heading all the way back to 2009 to see if Santa left candy or coal for us in the December Home Sales Report numbers from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors. You know, the KAAR.

November was a super strong month for the Knoxville market, largely thanks to the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit and possibly partly due to the new move-up buyer tax credit. But was December – notoriously one of the slowest times of year in the biz – able to keep up that momentum?

Well, that’s probably what you came here to find out, right? So join me while I  break down the October 2009 Home Sales Report, the only way I know how: AAKT style. Holla!

And looky here – there’s all kinds of good news to start things off with!

Average sales price for 3 BR homes is (slightly) up.
Dec  ’08 – $147,200
Dec  ’09 – $149,400

Average sales price for 4 BR+ homes is up.
Dec  ’08 – $262,500
Dec  ’09 – $277,400

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is (slightly)  up.
Dec  ’08 – $220,000
Dec ‘09 – $223,800

Average condo sales price is up.
Dec  ’08 – $160,200
Dec  ’09 – $169,500

Median condo sales price is (slightly) up.
Dec  ’08 – $149,000
Dec  ’09 – $150,000

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.
Dec  ’08 – $77, 500
Dec  ’09 – $72,600

Median sales price for 3 BR homes is (slightly) down.

Dec  ’08 – $132,000

Dec  ’09 – $129,000

—

Days on market is up.

…while FHA loans were still  up over last year.
Dec  ’08 – 139
Dec  ’09 – 159

And here’s the “Hope springs eternal with home sellers, but condo owners? Not so much” news-

The number of new residential listings was (slightly) up ...
Dec  ’08 – 1,505
Dec  ’09 – 1,552

…while  the number of new condo listings was (slightly) down.
Dec  ’08 – 193
Dec  ’09 – 172

And finally, there’s the “Finally! Now we can start getting some of these babies sold!” news-

1. Knoxville residential and condo sales are (for now) continuing their climb back to normality. Don’t call it a comeback.
2. That $8000 tax credit continues to boost sales, if not prices, of smaller homes.
3. It’s very possible that the move-up tax credit was also responsible for some sales, and maybe even responsible for the slight increase in larger home sales prices.
4. Hmmm… is that some sort of correlation between lowered listing prices and increased closed sales that I see? Hmmm…
5. Borrowers are still enjoying t FHA’s 3.5% down payment party and 6% seller paid closing costs carnival while they last.
6. Remember where we were this time last year? Geesh. How could 2010 not be better than that?

If you’re interested in looking at both reports yourself, here is ‘08 and here is ‘09. Enjoy and please feel free to share your thoughts and observations.

Remember October? The month we all wasted a good hour of our lives watching an empty mylar balloon on live TV?  The month Dow Jones closed above 10,000 for the first time in year? Oh, and we also got a whole lot of candy for dressing up in funny costumes. Yeah, that October. Well, it’s time to take a look back at the month that was because the October Home Sales Report numbers are out from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors. And they’re not lookin’ too shabby.

Now, remember all that good news we had last month from the September Home Sale numbers? Well, I’m happy to report that we have some more of it this month! Yes, folks, this is the second consecutive month that Knoxville area year over year home sales have trended upward after trending downward for three….long…years.

And as I mentioned last month, this upward trend no doubt has more than a little to do with that $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. And now that the tax credit has not only been extended, but also expanded to move-up buyers, I’m thinking we may see more healthy sales numbers all the way through the end of the year. And that would be the best Christmas present ever!

So, enough jibber jabber, let’s get down to what you really came here for. Join me while I  break down the October 2009 Home Sales Report, the only way I know how: AAKT style. Aw, yeah.

You know I like to start with the good news and we have a good bit of it this month -

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is up.
Oct  ’08 – $93,000
Oct  ’09 – $98,000

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is (slightly)  up.
Oct  ’08 – $240,800
Oct  ’09 – $241,000

And yes, the market is still self correcting, so there’s still some of that pesky not so good news:

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is down.
Oct  ’08 – $78,000
Oct  ’09 – $75,000

Average sales price for 3 BR homes is down.
Oct  ’08 – $162,700
Oct  ’09 – $145,700

Median sales price for 3 BR homes is down.
Oct  ’08 – $143,000
Oct  ’09 – $135,000

Median condo sales price is down.
Oct  ’08 – $146,000
Oct  ’09 – $132,600

—

Days on market is up.

…while FHA loans were (way, way, way) up.
Oct  ’08 – 149
Oct  ’09 – 298

And here’s the “last month’s home sale numbers must have given everyone some hope” news-

The number of new residential listings was (slightly) up ...
Oct  ’08 – 2106
Oct  ’09 – 2,135

…and the number of new condo listings was (way) up.
Oct  ’08 – 228
Oct  ’09 – 328

And finally, there’s the “Seriously, condo owners?” news-

1. Knoxville residential and condo sales continue to show signs of life after months and months in the ICU.
2. That $8000 tax credit has definitely helped boost home sales and has also continues to help smaller home sales prices.
3. FHA is lending money like crazy right now. Let’s just hope they don’t run out.
4. Prices continue to fall on mid-level and higher end homes as the market continues to self correct. And with inventory still at fairly high levels, this may be a trend that lasts well into 2010.
5. The September sales numbers may have given some sellers the shot of encouragement they needed to take the plunge and go ahead and list their homes.
6. If the market keeps going like this, local real estate offices may actually get to have Christmas parties this year.

If you’re interested in looking at both reports yourself, here is ‘08 and here is ‘09. Enjoy and please feel free to share your thoughts and observations.

 September has come and gone and now that it’s safely behind us, it’s time to take a look at the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors’ Home Sales Report numbers to see what went down in the Knoxville area housing market in the month that was.

Now, if you’re not sitting down, I want you to go ahead and do so. Why? Because for the first time in a long, long, long, long, very long time, there’s honest to goodnesss GOOD news in the breakdown this month! Not only were sales up, but sales prices were also up for some price ranges. Up! As Josh Flory reported last week:

Total sales of single-family, MLS-listed homes and condos added up to 993 units in September, compared to 931 units in September of 2008. That was the first year-over-year increase in the MLS numbers since June of 2006.

OK, now you can get up out of your seat and do your happy dance. I’ll wait.

Done? OK. Just so you understand why I’m so excited about this, here’s a visual aid to show you where we’ve been over the last few years.

See how every single year is slowly going down, down, down in terms of closed units? Now see that little gray line at the bottom? That’s 2009. Kind of sad for most of the year huh? Now look at how it crossed up over the little green line, aka 2008. THAT’S what I’m talking about.

Yes, it’s a small victory. And yes, it’s most likely due to the infamous $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. And no, I don’t know if this upward trend will continue after the end of November when the tax credit is set to expire. But my guess – and my broker’s guess as well – is that we will see continue to see healthy sales numbers into October and November as a result of that tax credit. Hey, I’ll take what I can get.

And just in case you’re curious, here are charts showing both active listings and months of inventory by month from 2005 to the present:

As you can see, active listings have been mostly down this year over last year, probably because many sellers chose not to list their homes during this market. However, active listings  have risen slightly over the past two months. A possible sign of increased seller confidence in the market? You decide.

Here, you can see that inventory started spiking around  August 2008 and after rising quite sharply, has more or less been dropping steadily all year. And yes, that’s a good thing .

Now, if you’ll excuse me I’m getting ready to break down the September 2009 Home Sales Report, using the word “up”  more than I’ve ever gotten to in a while. And you know I’m lovin’ that.

 Here’s all that good news -

Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is up.
Sep  ’08 – $88,600
Sep  ’09 – $96,100

Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is up.
Sep  ’08 – $78,000
Sep  ’09 – $80,700

Average sales price for 3 BR homes is up.
Sep  ’08 – $154,900
Sep  ’09 – $156,800

Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is up.
Sep  ’08 – $216,000
Sep  ’09 – $219,000

Average condo sales price is up.
Sep  ’08 – $162,700
Sep  ’09 – $168,300

  And yes, there’s also some not so good news. Just not as much:

Median sales price for 3 BR homes is down.
Sep  ’08 – $142,500
Sep  ’09 – $139,000

Median condo sales price is down.
Sep  ’08 – $147,400
Sep  ’09 – $139,900

 —

…while FHA loans were once again up.
Sep  ’08 – 208
Sep  ’09 – 259

And here’s the “Condo owners say sell, house owners say maybe later” news-

The number of new residential listings was down ...
Sep  ’08 – 2,553
Sep  ’09 – 2,401

…and the number of new condo listings was up.
Sep  ‘08 – 255
Sep  ’09 – 271

 And finally, there’s the “Honey, let’s just get this thing sold” news-

1. Knoxville residential and condo sales, while not rock hard, are showing some signs of firming. Think chilled butter as opposed to room temperature butter.
2.  The promise of getting an $8,0000 check after the closing coupled with still historic low interest rates is definitely pushing some first time buyers into the market and creating a rise in demand – and pricing – in smaller homes.
3. A good percentage of those first timers are going FHA either by choice or by necessity.
4. The continued trend in reduced listing prices tells me that sellers are getting serious about selling.
5. Larger, more expensive homes continue to suffer, partially due to an inventory glut, a lack of higher end buyers, and, let’s face it, lack of a higher end tax credit.
6.  Did you hear that? That was the sound of agents all over Knoxville breathing a collective sigh of relief. Aaahhh.

If you’re interested in looking at both reports yourself, here is ‘08 and here is ‘09. Enjoy and please feel free to share your thoughts and observations.