OK, first I admit: it’s the middle of September, so July seems like about a million years ago. School hadn’t started yet, football hadn’t started yet and Miley Cyrus hadn’t done whatever it was she did at the MTV awards thing (MAKE IT STOP ALREADY).
So, yes, this post is kinda late-ish. But in my defense (and someone has to stick up for me over here), the Knoxville Association of Realtors (German class name, KAAR) switched to a new MLS system and Realtor life has been a wee bit chaotic for the last few weeks to say the very least.
So, please accept my apology, let bygones be bygones and let’s get on to looking at what was happening in the Knoxville real estate market back in Ye Olde July 2013. And yes, they had color charts way back then. Let’s check them out!
This first chart shows months of supply, or the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current rate of sales. As you can see, supply was up slightly month over month, but is still way down year over year. But is this month over month increase a reason to panic? No way, I say. We’ve come an awful long way from January 2013 when we were at a 17 month supply to July when we were at a roughly 12 month supply. That’s a pretty big correction. And yes, it took 7 months to happen, but remember, slow and steady is the theme of this market turnaround and slow and steady is what will build a solid foundation for the next few years.
This dotted green line shows the number of active listings in the greater Knoxville area. And yes, that line has just been climbing up and up and up all year. Is this a good thing? Absolutely, because it means that sellers have confidence in the Knoxville market and think now is a good time to sell their homes. Also, you can see the 2011 and 2012 lines both went steadily down this time of year, so seller confidence is now so strong it’s actually bucking the seasonal trend. And since our inventory is only slightly up month over month and still way down in the long view, I’d say this is still good news.
And now for everyone’s very favorite chart of all: closed units. Looking at this dotted green line, you can see that, yes, sales were down month over month, but they are still way above 2011 and 2012 sales numbers. In fact, these are the best July sales numbers since about 2006 or 2007. And as I’ve mentioned before, the real estate market is seasonal. Looking at the chart, you can see that it’s not unusual for sales to dip in July right before the back to school season. What we will want to keep a close eye on from this point on is not month over month sales, but how 2013 sales hold up over 2012 sales for the rest of the year. If we can keep this year’s numbers up, we should be able to keep our inventory in check, our prices up and have the foundation for the start of a good 2014 (aka, The Future).
So now it’s time to move away from the pretty color pictures and toward the real meat of this meal: the June 2013 Knoxville Homes Sales Report numbers from the Knoxville Area Association of Realtors. And please allow me to break them down the only way I know how: AAKT style. Dig in!
Pass the good news, please!
Total number of single family units sold is up.
Jul ’12 – 1,034
Jul ’13 – 1,289
Average sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (way) up.
Ju1 ’12 – $83,700
Jul ’13 – $93,800
Median sales price for 2 or less BR homes is (way, way) up.
Jul ’12 – $66,500
Jul ’13 – $84,400
Average sales price for 3 BR homes is (way, way) up.
Jul ’12 – $148,400
Jul ’13 – $163,900
Median sales price for 3 BR homes is (way) up.
Jul ’12 – $135,000
Jul ’13 – $147,000
Median sales price for 4+ BR homes is, well, exactly the same.
Jul ’12 – $255,000
Jul ’13 – $255,000
Median condo sales price is (a little bit) up.
Jul ’12 – $136,000
Jul ’13 – $138,800
And yeah, I’ll have a little of that other kind of news too:
Average sales price for 4+ BR homes is (way)down.
Jul ’12 – $282,000
Jul ’13 – $273,200
Average condo sales price is (somewhat) down.
Jul ’12 – $159,200
Jul ’13 – $155,500
Days on market is (slightly) up.
Jul ’12 – 118
Jul ’13 – 123
Then there’s the “FHA loan? As if.” news:
FHA loans were just about flat…
Jul ’12 – 157
Jul ’13 – 155
… conventional loans were (way) up…
Jul ’12 – 441
Jul ’13 – 587
… and cash sales were way up a good bit as well.
Jul ’12 – 274
Jul ’13 – 331
And here’s the “Let’s get this thing sold while the gettin’s good” news
The number of new residential listings was (way) up…
Jul ’12 – 2,195
Jul ’13 – 2,727
…and there were a few more new condo listings too.
Jul ’12 – 237
Jul ’13 – 244
Finally there’s the “OK, I can actually live with this” news:
The average list price for residential listings was (way) down…
Jul ’12 – $237,000
Jul ’13 – $215,3000
… and the average list price for new condo listings was just (ever so slightly) up.
Jul ’12 – $168,100
Jul ’13 – $168,700
As always, here’s my completely unscientific analysis:
1. The Knoxville real estate market had one heck of a summer season. Let’s just take a minute to be grateful for that.
2. Pricing news wasn’t perfect, but it was pretty darn good, with just a few categories with lower numbers.
3. 2013 may be the year of the conventional loan comeback after all, with PMI changes making FHA loans less desirable.
4. Sales are up, sales prices are up, and listing prices are mostly down. This all bodes well for the coming months.
5. Seller confidence is super high right now, with houses going on the market left and right. This will mean plenty of inventory for buyers who missed out on the summer interest rates and deals.
6. The August numbers will be out really soon, so we’ll be able to see how hot the Knoxville Summer Selling Season really was, but for now, I’m going to go ahead and make a guess that it was almost too hot (for ladies or gentlemen).
Don’t forget to check out more lovely charts over at the 2012 Year End Wrap-Up post. You will like.